On 16 October 2026, Russian Vice-Prime Minister Alexander Novak took the stage at the REN-2026 forum and delivered a blunt assessment of the world's diesel market.
Novak's core claim was straightforward: the global diesel fuel market is experiencing a deficit amounting to roughly 25% of world trade. This figure is not a vague impression but a specific estimate offered by a senior Russian official, indicating that supplies are falling short of demand by one-quarter of the total volume normally exchanged internationally.
Before the current tightening, Russia had been a notable player in diesel exports, accounting for about 10% of the global supply that flowed to Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Since July, however, Moscow has imposed an export ban on diesel to external markets, removing that volume from the international arena and adding to the pressure on available stocks.
Novak pointed to supply difficulties in the Gulf as a second major driver of the deficit.
The immediate market reaction to the shortfall has been a sharp rise in diesel prices. Novak noted that diesel is now trading at around $200 per barrel. By contrast, crude oil prices have remained comparatively modest, staying in the $100-120 per barrel range. The widening gap between the two commodities has pushed crack-spreads—the refining margin between diesel and crude—to unusually high levels.
Novak pointed to supply difficulties in the Gulf as a second major driver of the deficit.
The Russian export ban is not a recent impulse; it has been in place since July.
The diesel shortage is not confined to Europe or the United States; it is also being felt in India. Indian market participants have voiced criticisms of US policy toward India's purchases of Russian diesel fuel, especially given that Washington has threatened high tariffs on such transactions.
As of the latest remarks from Novak, the market continues to experience a significant deficit, with crack-spreads remaining elevated. Diesel prices hold near the $200-per-barrel level while crude oil stays within the $100-120 band, indicating that the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand has not yet eased.